The RBA’s intervention in Australia’s bond markets is likely to keep a lid on the AUD over the coming weeks, but by Q3 analysts predict that the Aussie will resume its upward trend against the major currencies.
Despite a slow uptake with the nation’s vaccine rollout, which is hindering it against some currencies, it is likely that the AUD will benefit if the global vaccination race starts to catch up with the coronavirus and the global economic rebound quickens.
AUD to NZD
The AUD has been struggling against the NZD since the news broke about the quarantine-free travel bubble between the two countries. As New Zealand relies heavily on tourism in comparison to Australia, the Kiwi has been performing well in the hope that the incoming Aussies will boost the local economy.
If the travel bubble avoids being closed due to another outbreak, it is thought that the AUD will continue down as further expansion of travel bubbles or ‘vaccine passports’ are likely to have a similar effect on both currencies.
AUD to USD
Although the AUD has been performing relatively well this week against the USD, the move up faces fresh fundamental headwinds after the Australian foreign minister terminated two Belt and Road deals with China. The move will surely worsen Australia's already strained relationship with China and could push the AUD lower in the coming weeks.
However, the current market is relatively risk-on, mainly due to a positive outlook from the US surrounding economic recovery which will inevitably provide support for the AUD.
AUD to GBP
Although the UK market outlook is largely optimistic, the AUD has been the clear winner in the past seven days, maintaining its 1.5% climb from the previous week. Mixed UK job market and inflation data was not enough to support the GBP, and the upcoming local and Scottish parliamentary elections are weighing down the Pound, allowing the AUD to capitalise.
Later today, the UK is expected to publish its retail sales, manufacturing, and services PMI data and a strong result here could send the AUD down ahead of the weekend.
*Market update provided by our Travel Money Transfers partner SendFX Pty Ltd ACN 617 647 220 (‘Send’). Send holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 509635) . The information on this website has been provided for general information purposes only and must not in any way be construed or relied upon as personal advice.
